Jargogled Impressions.

There is an allure about the long-term, in that, the possibilities seem tantalizingly feasible, and the plans seem too far out to affect us in the here and the now. Most of us recognize intuitively the power of small-steps and incremental growth and continuous compounding and natural flywheel, and yet our long-term goals are and mostly stay de-coupled from our next best actions. Why is that?

Most self-help books recommend the same – start with the why. If you are not motivated enough, no amount of GTD or eat-the-frog or Eisenhower matrix will solve the issue for you. And endless doodling over setting up and using and optimizing Todoist, Notion, Coda, Evernote, Roam Research is going to get you there too. In fact, these tools, when abused versus used, can act as an insidious barrier to actually making progress. Productivity tools are much like social media in that sense – by themselves, they are just tools, and their value is derived from how you use it. Sure, the design of these tools aid and abet progress and, when used well, they can turn you into ‘the most interesting person on the planet’, but our ability to use them well is predicated on a host of other factors that these tools aren’t designed to solve for. And therefore, what most of us end up doing, is lying to ourselves of our own progress, over-indexing on indexing and measuring progress, and turning process into the thing itself.

Back to long-term thinking, I sense there is a distinct feel of hubris whenever we embark on a long-term strategy. We call it vision, mission statement, overview, north star, etc. but in the end, they serve more as a guidepost for where we want to be instead of a clear plan for how to get there and therefore, they can often make us feel like we are over-reaching. And therein lies part of the problem with making sense of the mismatch between our long-term goals and our actions. These hubristic ambitions seem to challenge our confidence in our capabilities leading us down the path of vague daydreaming and abstractions than concrete, small steps that we can take to carve out our path towards the destination we had in mind. Further, the grander the ambition the more we feel dissuaded by the steps and the roadblocks and the impediments and the detours and the pitstops we meet along the way. There is no way out of this other than being precise about our goals, ruthless towards our priorities, single-minded towards our tasks, and concentrated on the here and the now.

But regardless of the challenges and the inherent subtlety of managing our expectations and our behaviors, the allure to long-term thinking stands. How enticed we feel when we see people working towards something for decades at end? How fortunate we feel to be in the company of those that have dedicated their lives towards chasing a dream – it could be a research question (Jennifer Doudna, Charles Darwin), an enterprise (Edison, Yvon Chouinard), or something else altogether. It’s inspiring to see these remarkable people apply themselves to solving a small, but meaningful part of the puzzle that forms our life here on earth.

We do not have any obligation to be useful and productive of our time here on earth. And yet, most of us feel this incessant urge, a memetic pressure, a societal duty, an intensely personal chase to do something with our limited time on earth. Heck, there are organizations such as 80,000 hours dedicated to helping folks who are starting on this path make sense of what problems they can try and tackle which, regardless of its outcome, will work towards moving the needle on solving them.

The long now foundation encourages imagination at the timescale of civilization — the next and last 10,000 years — a timespan they call the long now. Their projects range from building a mechanical clock that lasts the next ten millennia, the rosetta project which is a living archive of 1,500+ human languages and is being distributed across the universe, and a manual for the civilization working toward a living, crowd-curated library of 3,500 books that serves as a manual for future civilizations.

The Future of Humanity institute endeavors to bring the tools of mathematics, philosophy, and social sciences to bear on big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects.

Global Priorities Institute (GPI) aims to improve the lives of future generations by identifying and promoting research on the most pressing global priorities. It explores issues related to effective altruism, decision-making under uncertainty, and long-termism.

Center for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) investigates potential threats that could lead to human extinction or severe disruptions. It focuses on risks associated with emerging technologies, including AI, synthetic biology, and nanotechnology.

The Open Philanthropy Project is a philanthropic organization that aims to positively impact the long-term future. It conducts research and makes grants in various areas, including reducing global catastrophic risks, improving institutional decision-making, and promoting effective altruism.

Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a nonprofit organization that seeks to mitigate global challenges, particularly those arising from artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies. It supports research, promotes public awareness, and advocates policies to ensure the safe and beneficial development of AI.

But I believe such hubris of mankind isn’t a paradigm of this age and era only. Our ancestors from way back in time have, through their own perceptions and ideas of long-term thinking, built their own projects and endeavors around this ideal. I bet constructions such as The Pyramids, Hanging Gardens of Babylon, Mausoleum of Halicarnassus, Persepolis, or the Terracotta Army were in fact attempts at transcending the mortal life and entering a realm of the “after-life” which was, in effect, the dominant framing around long-term thinking in those ages.

If we can just take a step back and marvel at our ability to even begin thinking so far out – an attribute that no doubt helped seal our stature in the pecking order of mammals on earth!